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As Ghanaians prepare for upcoming elections, the economy has become a central issue in both the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) campaigns.
Both parties claim to hold the key to improving the country’s economic fortunes, promising better fiscal management and growth.
But beyond the political rhetoric, how has Ghana’s creditworthiness fared under the leadership of the Mahama administration (2013 to 2016) and the Akufo-Addo administration (2017 to 2024)?
In this report, Fact-Check Ghana analyses Ghana’s credit rating over the aforementioned period, drawing on data from credit rating agencies, the Ministry of Finance’s Annual Debt Management Report, and a factsheet by the United Nations Office of the Special Advisor on Africa.
What is a credit rating?
A credit rating is a key indicator of a country’s ability to meet its financial obligations, essentially reflecting how reliable it is in repaying its debts
According to Investopedia, a country’s credit serves as a benchmark for investors to assess and determine the risk involved in lending to a country or investing in its bonds. While credit rating agencies refer to their assessments as opinions, they essentially indicate the possibility of a country paying its debt in full and on time.
Higher ratings such as AAA/Aaa to Baa3, indicate financial stability and the ability to pay debts while lower ratings such as Ba1/BB+ to C or D (depending on the rating agency), indicate higher risk or financial instability. These ratings affect borrowing costs, access to international capital, foreign investment, and interest rates.
Ghana’s creditworthiness has been assessed by three major international agencies—Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), and Fitch—since 2003, with each providing independent evaluations of the country’s fiscal health.
Fitch
From 2003 to 2004, Fitch, an international credit rating and research agency dual headquartered in New York and London rated Ghana at a B level. The agency upgraded the rating to B+ in 2005, indicating financial stability.
However, by October 2013, Fitch downgraded Ghana from B+ (in February 2013) to B, indicating rising fiscal challenges although with a stable outlook- a high probability of maintaining the rating level in the medium term.
The rating remained stable until June 2021, when the outlook changed from stable to negative reflecting a high likelihood of a rating downgrade, although still at the B level.
In January 2022, Fitch further downgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating from B to B- due to the country’s inability to access the international market after a surge in government debt largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The decline continued with Ghana’s rating dropping to CCC in August 2022 and further to C—a junk status in December 2022 and February 2023, making it the worst downgrade in 2 decades (since 2003).
On February 21 2023, Fitch marked Ghana down to RD (Restricted Default). According to Fitch, the downgrade reflects missed payments on some local currency-denominated bonds that are held by entities not eligible to participate in the domestic debt exchange. The rating remains the same presently.
During the Mahama-led government, Fitch downgraded Ghana’s rating in 2013 to B. This was a notable decline from the B+ rating Ghana had maintained for nearly a decade before the Mahama-led government assumed office.
In contrast, the early years of the Akufo-Addo government started on a stable note with a B rating. However, the situation changed as Ghana’s credit rating took a nosedive four times. The rating dropped from B to B- in January 2022, plummeted to CCC by August 2022, fell further to C in December 2022 and ultimately slipped into Restricted Default in 2023.
| Mahama-led government | |
| February 2013 October 2013 | B+ B |
| 2014 | B |
| 2015 | B |
| 2016 | B |
| Akufo-Addo-led government | |
| 2017 | B |
| 2018 | B |
| 2019 | B |
| 2020 | B |
| 2021 | B (stable outlook revised to negative) |
| 2022 | B- |
| 2023 | RD |
| 2024 | RD |
Standard & Poor’s (S&P)
S&P first assigned Ghana a B+ rating with a stable outlook in 2003. According to the agency, the rating reflected a high general government debt burden, low economic development and weak fiscal flexibility. It added that the factors were complemented by the government’s commitment to macroeconomic stabilisation and reform, significant socio-political stability and improved external liquidity.
This rating was affirmed in 2004 with a stable outlook, but in 2009, the outlook was revised from stable to negative. This was reportedly owing to worsened macroeconomic indicators in 2008. In addition, high government spending and rising oil prices led to a current account deficit of 21% of GDP in 2008, significantly reducing the Bank of Ghana’s already weak foreign reserves.
In 2010, S&P downgraded Ghana’s foreign currency and local currency long-term credit ratings to B with a stable outlook. The decline, they explained, was due to a large and erratic fiscal deficit, supplier arrears, high debt levels, loss-making state-owned enterprises and problems in the banking sector.
By May 2014, the outlook was revised from stable to negative, indicating the possibility of a decline in rating. Subsequently in October 2014, Ghana’s credit rating further downgraded to B- albeit a stable outlook. According to S&P, the downgrade was a reflection of the risks involved in financing Ghana’s large budget and current account deficits.
The rating did not change until September 2018 when it was upgraded back to B with a stable outlook due to improvements in monetary policy.
However, in April 2020, the outlook was revised again from stable to negative due to economic and external pressures including collapsing global oil prices as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In September 2020, S&P lowered Ghana’s long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings from B to B-/B with a stable outlook. It however affirmed Ghana’s short-term ratings at B.
In August 2022, the rating dropped to CCC+/C with a negative outlook due to the government’s increasing financing needs and restricted access to both international and domestic capital markets.
On December 20 2022, S&P lowered Ghana’s local currency, long and short-term sovereign credit rating on Ghana to SD (selective default) from CCC+/C. Additionally, the rating agency lowered the foreign currency long-term sovereign rating on Ghana from CCC+ to CC and affirmed the foreign currency short-term sovereign rating at C.
By February 2023, Ghana’s rating climbed up from SD/C to CCC+/C. At the same time, S&P affirmed the SD/SD long and short-term foreign currency ratings. The rating improved after Ghana settled its domestic debt exchange program.
S&P downgraded Ghana’s rating to B- during Mahama’s tenure from a previous rating of B+ due to the risks associated with financing huge government budgets and current account deficits.
However, under Akufo-Addo, Ghana’s rating improved briefly in September 2018, climbing back to B with a stable outlook until 2020 when the outlook reverted to negative, driven by the impact of COVID-19. S&P downgraded Ghana to B- in September 2020 and further to CCC+ in August 2022 as the country struggled with mounting debt. By December 2022, Ghana’s long and short-term foreign rating was lowered to SD (Selective Default) from CC/C.
The rating remained at SD/SD for long and short-term foreign currency ratings but was raised from SD/C to CCC+/C for long and short-term local currency with a stable outlook in February 2023 after settling the domestic debt exchange program.
On October 14, 2024, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed Ghana’s sovereign ratings, maintaining an SD/SD (selective default) for both long- and short-term foreign currency and a CCC+/C long- and short-term local currency. The outlook on Ghana’s long-term local currency rating remains stable.
| Mahama-led government | |
| 2013 | B |
| 2014 | B- |
| 2015 | B- |
| 2016 | B- |
| Akufo-Addo-led government | |
| 2017 | B- |
| 2018 | B (upgrade) |
| 2019 | B |
| April 2020 September 2020 | B (stable outlook changed to negative) B- (Downgrade) |
| 2021 | B- |
| August 2022 December 2022 | CCC+ SD |
| 2023 | SD |
| 2024 | SD |
Moody’s
Moody’s rated Ghana B1 from 2009 to March 2014, reflecting a stable and positive outlook. However, by June 2014, Ghana’s rating dropped to B2 and then to B3, where it remained from 2015 to 2021.
In February 2022, Ghana was downgraded to Caa1, followed by further downgrades to Caa2 in September 2022 and Ca in November 2022. By October 2024, Moody’s had reverted Ghana’s rating to Caa2.
Moody’s rated Ghana at B1 until March 2014, when the rating dropped to B2, reflecting growing economic challenges. By 2015, Ghana’s rating further slipped to B3, where it remained until the end of Mahama’s presidency.
Under the Akufo-Addo administration, Ghana’s creditworthiness took a steep downturn. In 2022 alone, the country’s rating fell three times—first from B3 to Caa1 in February, then to Caa2 in September, and further down to Ca in November. By October 2024, the rating had stabilised slightly, returning to Caa2 with a positive outlook.
| Mahama-led government | |
| 2013 | B1 |
| March 2014 June 2014 | B1 B2 (downgrade) |
| 2015 | B3 (downgrade) |
| 2016 | B3 |
| Akufo-Addo-led government | |
| 2017 | B3 |
| 2018 | B3 |
| 2019 | B3 |
| 2020 | B3 |
| 2021 | B3 |
| February 2022 September 2022 November 2022 | Caa1 (downgrade) Caa2 (downgrade) Ca (downgrade) |
| 2023 | Ca |
| 2024 | Caa2 |
In short, both governments faced fiscal challenges. While Ghana’s creditworthiness declined under the Mahama administration, the administration saw gradual fiscal stress compared to the Akufo-Addo administration which faced a significant downturn, particularly after 2020. External factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and rising debt levels severely impacted the country’s financial health, leading to record-low credit ratings.
